Forest Ecosystem Solutions Ltd.
Last updated October 2006

Wildfire Risk Management System

Forest Ecosystem Solutions Ltd., in conjuction with BA Blackwell and Associates Ltd., developed the Wildfire Risk Management System Dynamic Model (WRMS). Wildfire Risk Management is defined as: the probability and consequence of wildfire at a specified location under specified conditions. The basic model structure consists of probability and consequence ratings, each of which is derived from a series of components. The probability components are ignition potential, fire behaviour and suppression capability. The consequence components vary for each client, and may include air quality, urban interface, parks, biodiversity, etc. Combining the probability and consequence layers gives the overall risk.

The dynamic model is a tool that allows the user to look at different scenarios by turning layers on and off, or changing the emphasis given to the layers. It also allows the user to enter the daily fire weather data and see the change in fire risk over time. There is also the ability to create presentation maps of WRMS output.

Given the prevalence of wildfire events in British Columbia, the model is a useful tool that enables foresters to forsee the likelihood of wildfire occurrence and the consequences of a fire on forests and communities. Managers can evaluate alternative fuel and fire management options to reduce the probability of large, intense wildfires. The analysis has application in harvest and fuel management planning, fire suppression planning, management of wildland-urban interface, water quality protection, and conservation management.